The week to 9 October: more money from workers abroad, lending rates creeping up and a steady rupee

Remittances and reserves

Sri Lankans working abroad sent home USD 734 million in September, according to the Central Bank's Weekly Economic Indicators of 9 October, up 5.6% on September 2025 but a little below the USD 749 million of August. That is the smallest rise on a year earlier since November 2024: growth has slowed from 32.0% in May. The best month this year was May 2026, at USD 847 million.

Gross official reserves, which include the swap facility with the People's Bank of China, were USD 6,851 million at the end of September, a provisional figure, from USD 6,905 million a month earlier.

Tourist arrivals, published by the Sri Lanka Tourism Development Authority on 4 October, came to 158,557 in September, 0.3% fewer than the 158,971 of a year earlier.

Borrowing costs

At this week's Treasury bill auction the one-year bill's average yield was 9.95%, the same as the week before, while the three-month bill rose to 9.26% and the six-month bill to 9.44%. Investors again preferred short bills. The government accepted Rs 44,112 million of three-month bills, more than the Rs 35,000 million it offered, but only Rs 6,380 million of the Rs 20,000 million of one-year bills on offer, the third week in a row it took less than it offered at that maturity.

Banks' average weighted prime lending rate, what they charge their best corporate customers, rose to 11.16% in the week to 9 October, from 10.73% four weeks earlier.

Overnight money stayed calm. The weighted average call money rate was 8.99% on 9 October, inside the Central Bank's corridor of 8.25% to 9.25%, and the banking system's surplus funds, the outstanding liquidity, grew to Rs 399.14 billion from Rs 360.01 billion a week earlier.

The rupee

The rupee barely moved: the spot rate was Rs 330.96 to the US dollar on 9 October, against Rs 330.62 a week earlier. A year ago a dollar cost Rs 302.62.

Risk officers are less worried about the next three years

The Central Bank's Systemic Risk Survey for the second half of 2026, released on 7 October, asks financial institutions' risk officers how confident they are in the financial system. Their net balance for the year ahead was 1.6%, little changed from 1.4% six months before. For the next one to three years it improved to −4.8%, from −13.4%.

They see a high-impact shock in the coming year as more likely than before: 21.0% rated its probability high, up from 12.2%. Global macroeconomic risks were again the most often named, at 26.0% of the risks listed, from 14.0%.

Coming up

Industrial production for August is expected from the Department of Census and Statistics around 12 October, the purchasing managers' indices for September from the Central Bank on 15 October, and September's tourism earnings around 16 October. The full list is on the release calendar.