Systemic Risk Survey

CBSL's half-yearly survey of financial institutions' risk officers: confidence in the financial system and the probability of a high impact event over the next one and three years, and which kinds of risk they see as most important. Half-yearly, 2019–2026.

Published by the Central Bank of Sri Lanka; read from CBSL Systemic Risk Survey.

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Confidence in the financial system over the next year
Net percentage balance1.6net %−3.6 pts
No confidence, % of respondents1.3%−0.1 pts
Not very confident, % of respondents12.1%+3.1 pts
Fairly confident, % of respondents71.4%+1.1 pts
Very confident, % of respondents12.8%−3.7 pts
Complete confidence, % of respondents2.5%−0.3 pts
Confidence in the financial system over the next three years
Net percentage balance−4.8net %+0.4 pts
No confidence, % of respondents1.3%+0.6 pts
Not very confident, % of respondents23.6%−4.0 pts
Fairly confident, % of respondents61.8%+5.9 pts
Very confident, % of respondents10.2%−2.9 pts
Complete confidence, % of respondents3.2%+0.4 pts
Probability of a high impact negative event over the next year
Net percentage balance−6net %+15.6 pts
Very low, % of respondents7.0%+0.9 pts
Low, % of respondents24.2%−20.4 pts
Medium, % of respondents45.3%+9.7 pts
High, % of respondents21.0%+7.3 pts
Very high, % of respondents2.6%+2.6 pts
Probability of a high impact negative event over the next three years
Net percentage balance−0.4net %−1.7 pts
Very low, % of respondents1.9%+0.6 pts
Low, % of respondents21.1%+0.5 pts
Medium, % of respondents53.5%−0.6 pts
High, % of respondents22.8%+0.9 pts
Very high, % of respondents0.7%−1.3 pts
Sources of risk to the financial system
Global macroeconomic risks, % of risks cited26.0%+1.6 pts
General domestic macroeconomic risks (from H2 2025), % of risks cited16.6%+0.4 pts
Fiscal and sovereign related risks (from H2 2025), % of risks cited12.3%+1.9 pts
Risks related to financial infrastructure, % of risks cited12.5%+2.6 pts
Financial market risks, % of risks cited14.0%−1.7 pts
Risks related to financial institutions, % of risks cited14.1%−2.5 pts
General risks, % of risks cited4.6%−2.2 pts
Domestic macroeconomic risks (to H1 2025), % of risks cited ended33.5%−9.1 pts
Systemic risk survey
Firms taking part158number+8.2%

Net percentage balance

net %, half-yearly. 2026 H2: 1.6, −3.6 pts on a year earlier

Series page

Published by the Central Bank of Sri Lanka; read from CBSL Systemic Risk Survey.

* Calculated by Macro Lab from the published values.